The Flood probability persistence layer shows where on the model river network EFAS forecasts a flood, showing the flood severity level together with the flood probability for cells with an upstream area greater than 50km2.
The persistence probability map combines the 2-year (yellow), 5-year (red), and 20-year (purple) total (combining all models) exceedance probabilities, averaged from the two most recent forecast runs. It considers the maximum probability for each hazard level across all forecast lead time range (10 days). It is used in the definition of the reporting points, in a way that no dynamic point is generated below the minimum probability thresholds (50% / 30% / 30%).
