Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Fernando, Linus, Ivan

 

 

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

2017-06-29

2017-06-30

2017-07-03

2017-07-04


Picture

1. Impact

On 29 June north-eastern Germany was hit by severe rainfall and worst affected parts of Berlin got more than 200 mm.

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

   





3.1 Data assimilation

 

3.2 HRES

The plots below show 24-hour precipitation valid 29 June 06z to 30 June 06z from HRES forecasts with different initial times.


3.3 ENS



The plot below shows the forecast evolution for 48-hour precipitation in Berlin valid 29-30 June.



3.4 Monthly forecasts


3.5 Comparison with other centres

The plots below show 24-hour precipitation in the first 12 ensemble members from forecasts initialised 29 June 06z from ECMWF (left), DMI (middle) and DWD (right).




4. Experience from general performance/other cases

 

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event


6. Additional material