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Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

Picture

1. Impact

2. Description of the event

The plot below shows temperature observations from around Minneapolis for 18 December 12z from www.ogimet.com .

Forecast User > 201612 - Cold spell - US > temp_12z.png

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

The plot below shows 2-metre temperature for Minneapolis from observations (black), HRES (red) and Control forecast (blue) from 17 December 00z (solid) and 18 December 00z (dashed).

Forecast User > 201612 - Cold spell - US > stn_2T_201612180_44.9_-93.3_oper_ecmf.ps.gif

The plot below shows temperature diagnostics for Minneapolis.

Forecast User > 201612 - Cold spell - US > temp_1_fc_44.9_-93.3_18.ps.gif

The plot below shows a vertical temperature profile for Minneapolis for 18 Dec+12h.

Forecast User > 201612 - Cold spell - US > temp_fc_44.9_-93.3_12.ps.gif

3.3 ENS

The plots below show the EFI and SOT for 2-metre temperature on 18 December.

Forecast User > 201612 - Cold spell - US > efi_1.ps.gif

1. Impact

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material