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Status:Ongoing analysis Material from:

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

Picture

1. Impact

2. Description of the event

The sequence below show 12-hour precipitation forecasts and MSLP ranging from 18-25 November.

Forecast User > 201611 - Rainfall - Southern Europe > msl_1812.png

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

The plots below show the analysis of z500 and t850 for 24 November 12z (left) and the forecast from 6.5 days before (right).

Forecast User > 201611 - Rainfall - Southern Europe > z500_an.png

The plots below show 24-hour precipitation for 24 November 06z to 25 November 06z from HRES.

Forecast User > 201611 - Rainfall - Southern Europe > precip_20161124_0_6_1_1_ecmf.ps.gif

3.3 ENS

The plots below show EFI and SOT for precipitation valid 24 November.

Forecast User > 201611 - Rainfall - Southern Europe > efi_tp_1.ps.gif

3.4 Monthly forecasts

The plots below show weekly precipitation anomalies for 21-27 November.

Forecast User > 201611 - Rainfall - Southern Europe > mnth_tp_1.png

3.5 Comparison with other centres

3.6 EFAS

Flash flood warnings on 24 November:

Forecast User > 201611 - Rainfall - Southern Europe > eric.png

Flood warnings in forecast from 25 November:

Forecast User > 201611 - Rainfall - Southern Europe > efas2.png

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material