Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
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On 2 September the tropical cyclone Hermine made landfall on the north-western side of Florida.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-37248359
The plots below show the tropical cyclone activity for 31 August to 1 September. Already in the earliest forecast (from 24 August) the probability for a tropical cyclone in the northern part of Gulf of Mexico was above 20% and in the forecast from 25 the probability increased to above 50%. However, in the subsequent forecasts the probability decreased again. This change was connected to the whether the cyclone should form already in the Atlantic, which it did not. But later Hermine formed in the same tropical depression.