Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Fernando, Linus

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/05/20/sc/

Picture

1. Impact

Accordingly with the Guardian India recorded the hotest day ever somewhere in Rajasthan in a town near the desert on 19 May. The previous record was in 1956 with 50.6 C and the new is 51C.

2. Description of the event

The Meteogram for Phalodi where the new record was set shows extreme values compared with the Model Climate. The ENS pdf shows a 46-48 C distribution for Thu. This cold bias is a known feature of the IFS in particular for the extreme warm temperatures.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

The plot below shows the time-series of observations (black) and HRES  from 17 May 00z (red) for 26.9N/70.9E (not far from 27.1N/72.1 that reported the record temperature).

3.3 ENS

The plots below show the EFI and SOT for 2-metre temperature valid 18-20 May.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material