Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Ervin

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/04/18/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/04/19/sc/

Picture

1. Impact

On 16 to 19 April Texas was hit by heavy rainfall and 5 people believed to be dead at least.  It seems to be a historical event with the ~450 mm (17.6 inch) rain that fell near Houston. See e.g. this BBC link.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-36079009

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material