Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

Picture

1. Impact

On Saturday 12 September southern France was hit but flash floods and the day after Genoa in north-western Italy was hit. 2 people were killed in the Emilia Romagna region. On 14 September a strong convective cell affected Veneto (NE Italy) and created hailstones in size of tennis balls.

2. Description of the event

The plots below shows MSLP and 12-hour precipitation from short forecasts.

Saturday (12 Sept 06- 13 Sept 06z)

Sunday (13 Sept 06z - 14 Sept 06z)

Monday (14 Sept 06z - 15 Sept 06z)

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

Saturday (12 Sept 06- 13 Sept 06z)

The plots below show forecasts from 12 Sept 00z, 11 Sept 12z ans 11 Sept 00z.

Sunday (13 Sept 06z - 14 Sept 06z)

The plots below show forecasts from 13 Sept 00z, 12 Sept 12z ans 12 Sept 00z.

3.3 ENS

Saturday 12 Sept

EFI and SOT for precipitation (from 12 Sept 00z and 11 Sept 00z)

Sunday 13 Sept

EFI and SOT for precipitation (from 13 Sept 00z, 12 Sept 00z and 11 Sept 00z)

Monday 14 Sept

EFI and SOT for precipitation (from 14 Sept 00z, 13 Sept 00z and 12 Sept 00z)

EFI and SOT for CAPE+SHEAR (from 14 Sept 00z, 13 Sept 00z and 12 Sept 00z)

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

3.6 EFAS

EPIC

ERIC

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material