Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

Picture

1. Impact

On Saturday 12 September southern France was hit but flash floods and the day after Genoa in north-western Italy was hit. On 14 September a strong convective cell affected Veneto (NE Italy) and created hailstones in size of tennis balls.

2. Description of the event

The plots below shows MSLP and 12-hour precipitation from short forecasts.

Saturday (12 Sept 06- 13 Sept 06z)

Sunday (13 Sept 06z - 14 Sept 06z)

Monday (14 Sept 06z - 15 Sept 06z)

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

Saturday (12 Sept 06- 13 Sept 06z)

The plots below show forecasts from 12 Sept 00z, 11 Sept 12z ans 11 Sept 00z.

Sunday (13 Sept 06z - 14 Sept 06z)

The plots below show forecasts from 13 Sept 00z, 12 Sept 12z ans 12 Sept 00z.

3.3 ENS

Saturday 12 Sept

Sunday 13 Sept

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

3.6 EFAS

EPIC

ERIC

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material