Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Fernando, Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/03/31/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/04/01/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/04/03/sc/
Picture
On the 31 March 2015 a strong windstorm hit north-western Europe.the cyclones was named Niklas.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Niklas
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32138213
Cyclone Niklas was the third cyclone over the last days in March, associated with a negative phase of NAO. The figures below show short forecasts (12h) of MSLP and precipitation. Niklas passed over northern Germany around 12z on 31 March.
The plot below show 24-hour maximum winds on the 31 March. Observations of more than 25 m/s in the gusts over land spread from Ireland to Poland.
The plots below show 24-hour maximum wind gusts valid 31 March and MSLP valid at 12z on 31 March.
The plots below show the EFI and SOT for winds gusts valid 31 March.
The next plot shows the probabilities of exceeding 10-year return period of maximum wind gusts. The top-left panel shows the verification based on ERA Interim.
