Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, ..

1. Impact

On 17 -18 September the region south of Bologna was hit by severe rainfall. The synoptic system was linked to Storm Boris (202409 - Rainfall - Central Europe).

2. Description of the event

The evaluation of the rainfall will focus on 48-hour rainfall on 17 September 00UTC  - 19 September 00UTC for a 0.25x0.25 degree box south of Bologna (centred on 44.2N, 11.5E).

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 15 September 00UTC to 20 September 00UTC, every 12th hour.

The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 14 September to 20 September.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

The plots below show 48-hour precipitation in observations (first plot, to be added), concatenated short forecasts (second plot)

The plots below show 48-hour precipitation in ENS control forecasts with different lead times.

The plots below show 48-hour precipitation in DestinE 4.4km with different lead times.

The plots below show 48-hour precipitation in AIFS with different lead times.

The plots below show 48-hour precipitation in AIFS0-ENS member 1 with different lead times.

3.3 ENS

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material