Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Ivan. Linus

Discussed in the following Daily reports: http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/09/30/sc/

Picture

1. Impact

Heavy convective showers affected the area around the French city of Montpellier where around 200 mm of rain were reported causing flash floods in the region.

2. Description of the event

The plot above shows the observed precipitation between 29 September 00UTC and 30 September 00UTC.

The plots above show 12-hour precipitation and MSLP from 12 hour forecasts valid at the time labelled in the plots.

The plots above show z500 and t850 analyses.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

ECMWF

COSMO-LEPS

EFI for precipitation valid the 29 September.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material