Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

Picture

1. Impact

2. Description of the event

http://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/Version3/2014Pakistan4179.html

The figure above shows the 3-day accumulation of precipitation between 3 September 00UTC and 6 September 00UTC. In the border between Pakistan and India two stations reported more than 300 mm.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

The plots above shows the accumulated precipitation in HRES between 3-6 September (72 hours).

3.3 ENS

The plots above shows the probability for more than 100 mm during the 72-hour period (3-6 September) from forecasts with different initial times.

The plots above shows the EFI and SOT for 3-day accumulation of precipitation.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

The figure above shows the ensemble mean anomalies for the week 1-7 September from different monthly forecasts, including the analysis (top panel).

3.5 Comparison with other centres

3.6 EFAS

The plot above is from Glofas from 6 September.

The plots above shows the discharge forecast for River Chenab at a point close to Multan.

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material