Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2013/11/05/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2013/11/06/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2013/11/07/sc/
The cyclone formed on the 3 November. On the 6 November 00 UTC the cyclone first classified as a super-typhoon. Late on the 7 November the cyclone made landfall on southern Philippines. Just before (18 UTC) the wind speed was (estimated?) 195 mph.
The figure above shows verification of the MSLP fields valid 8 Nov 00 UTC. For high-resolution ps-file, click here. Already the HRES forecast from 10 days before had a cyclone in vicinity of the Philippines. In the forecast from the 3 and 4 November the cyclone starts to be more intense. However, the minimum pressure error is very large (60-70 hPa).
The figures above shows the strike probability product from 7, 6, 5 and 4 November 00 UTC. Here we see a very consistent ensemble regarding the track, but the ensemble has even higher minimum pressure than the HRES.
Strike probability of a tropical storm for the period 4 to 10 November. forecasts from 4 Nov, 31 Oct, 28 Oct, 24 Oct and 21 October. As expected for above the forecast from 4 November had a high strike probability. For the earlier forecasts there is a risk for a cyclone (however we have to check how different the probabilities are from the climatology).