Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Ivan, ...

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1. Impact

In the end of October severe weather hit different parts of Italy. On 29 October a cyclone brought a storm surge to Venice and extreme rainfall and precipitation over the southern Alps.

2. Description of the event

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and short forecasts of 6-hour total precipitation covering 27 October 00UTC to 30 October 12UTC, every 12th hour.

The plots below show analyses of z500 (contour) and T850 (shade) covering 27 October 00UTC to 30 October 12UTC, every 12th hour.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

(Add precipitation plots)

The plots below show forecasts of 24-hour maximum wind gusts valid 29 October.

3.3 ENS

The plots below show EFI and SOT 3-day precipitation (27-29 October).

The plots below show EFI and SOT for 24-hour maximum wind gusts valid for 29 October.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

The plots below shows weekly anomalies of precipitation valid 29 October to 4 November.

The plots below shows weekly anomalies of MSLP valid 29 October to 4 November.

3.5 Comparison with other centres

3.6 EFAS

The plots below show EFAS forecasts for a point in northern Italy.

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material