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An explanation of ROC diagrams is given in the annex to this guide.

Fig8.3.3-1: An example ROC diagram for 850hPa temperature for the verifying period Sep, Oct, Nov derived from seasonal forecast runs with data time of early Aug.  Points above the lower left/upper right diagonal signify skill.  The ROC score or value is the area beneath the red curve.

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An explanation of reliability diagrams is given in the annex to this guide.

Fig8.3.3-2: reliability An example reliability diagram for precipitation for the verifying period Sep, Oct, Nov derived from seasonal forecast runs with data time of early Aug.  Points above the diagonal signify under-forecasting, points below the diagonal signify over-forecasting.

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