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  • the purple boxes and whiskers indicate the seasonal forecast.
  • the grey boxes and whiskers indicate the seasonal model climatology (shorter S-M-climate) derived from the re-forecasts using SEAS5 seasonal forecasts (i.e. for the period 1993-2016).
  • the yellow and orange bands indicate the reanalysis climatology during the same 1993-2016 period.

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Fig8.3.4.2-3: Sea surface temperature anomaly over the Western Tropical Indian Ocean area.  

The seasonal (SEAS5) forecast of the anomaly (purple) lies well above above upper terciles of the seasonal model climatologies (yellow and grey).

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Fig8.3.4.2-4: Sea surface temperature anomaly over the Eastern Tropical Indian Ocean area.  

The seasonal (SEAS5) forecast of the anomaly (purple) lies:

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Fig8.3.4.2-5: Sea surface temperature anomaly over the Nino 3.4 area.

The seasonal (SEAS5) forecast of the anomaly (purple) lies:

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Fig8.3.4.2-6: North Atlantic Oscillation.  Positive values correspond to an intensification of westerly winds over the North Atlantic.

The seasonal (SEAS5) forecast of the anomaly (purple) lies near to the model climate values but some indication of negative values in January and February suggesting a weakening of the westerly wind regime across the Atlantic.

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Fig8.3.4.2-7: Precipitation anomaly over southern Europe. 

The seasonal (SEAS5) forecast of the anomaly (purple) lies:

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Fig8.3.4.2-8: Temperature anomaly over Northern Europe.

Sequence of seasonal (SEAS5) forecasts of the anomaly (purple) over Northern Europe.  The pecked red box encloses forecasts verifying November and December.

SEAS5 Seasonal forecasts for November and December predict above normal temperatures in Northern Europe.  The SEAS5 seasonal forecasts remain within the box and whisker symbols of both the reanalysis climatology and seasonal model climatology (shorter S-M-climate).

The red dots show the observed anomalies.  The observed anomaly September lies above the SEAS5 seasonal forecast, the reanalysis the reanalysis climatology and the seasonal model climatology (shorter S-M-climate).

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Fig8.3.4.2-9: Precipitation anomaly over Southern Europe. 

Sequence of seasonal (SEAS5) forecasts of the anomaly (purple) over Southern Europe.  The pecked red box encloses forecasts verifying October and November.

SEAS5 Seasonal forecasts for October and November predict above normal precipitation in Southern Europe.  However, the SEAS5 seasonal forecast run DT 1st Oct shows a negative anomaly for that month.  Here the extended range forecast might be more appropriate to use.  The SEAS5 seasonal forecasts remain within the box and whisker symbols of both the reanalysis climatology and seasonal model climatology (shorter S-M-climate).

SEAS5 Seasonal forecasts for February suggest the precipitation anomaly rises from below reanalysis mean climatology from the Aug forecast to above reanalysis mean climatology.

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