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1. Forecast system version
System name: GCFS 2.12
First operational forecast run:November 2020 April 2025
2. Configuration of the forecast model
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Detailed documentation: MPIOM: Jungclaus et al., 2013
3. Boundary conditions - climate forcings
The forcing database for radiative parameters like ozone, aerosol and greenhouse gases is provided by CMIP6 for the historical period up to 2014. Afterwards, data of RCP 4.5 future scenarios is used.
| Greenhouse gases | |
|---|---|
| Ozone | |
| Tropospheric aerosols | |
| Volcanic aerosols | |
| Solar forcing |
Detailed documentation:
4. Initialization and initial condition (IC) perturbations
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4.1 Atmosphere and land
| Hindcast | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|
| Atmosphere initialization | ERA5 | ERA5T |
| Atmosphere IC perturbations | none | none |
Land Initialization | indirect via atmosphere initialization | indirect via atmosphere initialization |
| Land IC perturbations | none | none |
| Soil moisture initialization | indirect via atmosphere initialization | indirect via atmosphere initialization |
| Snow initialization | indirect via atmosphere initialization | indirect via atmosphere initialization |
| Unperturbed control forecast? | yes | yes |
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Data assimilation method for control analysis: no ensemble data assimilation
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4.2 Ocean and cryosphere
| Hindcast | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|
| Ocean initialization | ORAS5 | ORAS5 |
| Ocean IC perturbations | The very first hindcast ensemble in 1990 starts with lagged initialisation of the 30 members by each one day. Subsequently, bred vectors add small disturbances to the global three-dimensional ocean temperature and salinity fields | bred vectors add small disturbances to the global three-dimensional ocean temperature and salinity fields |
| Unperturbed control forecast? | yes | yes |
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Detailed documentation: GCFS ocean data assimilation: Baehr & Piontek, 2014
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5. Model uncertainties perturbations:
| Model dynamics perturbations | no |
|---|---|
| Model physics perturbations | atmosphere: perturbation of diffusion in uppermost layer |
If there is a control forecast, is it perturbed? | unperturbed control forecast |
Detailed documentation: Baehr et al. (2015)
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6. Forecast system and hindcasts
| Forecast frequency | monthly |
|---|---|
| Forecast ensemble size | 50 |
| Hindcast years | 1993 - 2023 |
| Hindcast ensemble size | 30 |
| On-the-fly or static hindcast set? | static |
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7. Other relevant information
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Interpolation details
Horizontal Interpolation
Vertical interpolation
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The forcing database for radiative parameters like ozone, aerosol and greenhouse gases is provided by CMIP6 for the historical period up to 2014. Afterwards, data of RCP 4.5 future scenarios is used.
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. Where to find more information
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