Objective: The first batch of TC products for tropical cyclone HAIMA indicate a north-westward track towards Philippines Arquipelago. The impact of super typhoon HAIYAN is still deeply engraved in the memories of the population and the emergency authorities are under pressure to start evacuate the populations at risk (TC landfall) as soon as possible. Based on the Tropical Cyclone Strike Probability charts, EFI for Significant Wave height and Model Climate information and Significant Wave Height probability forecast, you are asked to provide guidance 3-4 days in advance before the landfall. Also is important to provide an estimate of the swell knowing that swell+tide+storm surge combined can wreak havoc along the coastline.
An interesting video showing a powerful storm surge caused by HAIYAN can be seen here.
Skill forecast
Before starting looking at the tropical cyclone and wave products check the forecast performance.
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Check also the forecast performance of the wave model here
Forecast products
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Verification (to show later)
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EFI of significant wave height (SWH) and Model Climate 90% percentile of SWH for 96-120h forecast based on start date 17th October (mid panel).
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